Higher education has taken another shift this year, with a significant 5% decrease in the enrollment of 18-year-old college freshmen. This downturn was a surprising contrast to last year’s growth and has raised concerns among college leadership and policymakers.

Is the FAFSA Delay to Blame?

A primary culprit for the decrease in recent high school graduates could be the botched rollout of the 2024-2025 Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA). FAFSA is the first step most college seekers take to secure federal financial aid and determine if they can afford to attend the college of their choice or even whether they can afford to attend college at all. This year’s FAFSA had numerous technical glitches and delays, jeopardizing much-needed financial aid.

  • Delayed Aid Packages: Many students faced delays in receiving their financial aid award letters, making it difficult to make timely decisions about college enrollment.
  • Reduced FAFSA Completion Rates: The FAFSA failures led to a significant drop in completion rates among high school seniors, further impacting enrollment.

Changes to Affirmative Action

The Supreme Court’s decision last year to ban affirmative action in college admissions may also have affected the decline of 18-year-old freshman enrollment.

  • Reduced Enrollment of Minority Students: The decision has particularly affected the enrollment of Black (down 16.9%), Multiracial (down 14.2%), and Asian (down 10.3%) 18-year-old freshmen enrollments at highly selective public and private institutions. Comparatively, enrollment of White students decreased by 5.0% and Hispanic by 7.9%.
  • Shifts in Less Selective Institutions: Some students may have opted to attend community colleges or less selective institutions due to the uncertainty about their admission chances at more competitive schools in addition to the FAFSA delays.

Colleges Need to Increase Outreach and Support

If higher education wants to turn the tide on these enrollment declines, there needs to be more strategic outreach and communication to prospective students; particularly by addressing affordability concerns. With all of the noise over the last few years on student loan forgiveness and growing student loan debt, many students question the return on investment of a college degree.

Colleges need to do a better job of weeding out programs that don’t lead to gainful employment and focusing on degrees that employers are willing to pay more for. This requires strong data analytics and an enrollment-to-employment approach to tracking students, along with comprehensive student loan repayment support. These are services that IonTuition does fabulously through its LinQ Strategic Enrollment Management offering and student loan Default Aversion Solution.